New Zealand is on monitor for a rare “triple dip”, the place the La Nina weather phenomenon persists for three years in a row.
Niwa information exhibits it is going to solely be the third time it has occurred in New Zealand since data started.
Forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino stated the atmospheric imprint of La Nina continued to be robust over the nation, and the Southern Oscillation Index (one of many key atmospheric indices for gauging the power of La Nina occasions) throughout April was monitoring to develop into the third-highest April worth on file since not less than 1876.
Only April 1904 and 2011 have been larger, and it was in regards to the Twentieth-highest month-to-month worth on file total, he stated.
“This suggests that La Nina is still very much influencing global atmospheric patterns,” he stated.
Typically, La Nina occasions happen each three to 5 years.
Northeasterly winds are likely to develop into extra frequent throughout La Nina occasions, bringing moist, wet situations to northeastern areas of the North Island and lowered rainfall to the decrease and western South Island.
Brandolino stated sea temperatures, mixed with enhanced commerce winds which have been forecast to proceed from May into June, meant the persistence of La Nina situations was doubtless.
Taking these components into consideration, there was a 60 per cent likelihood La Nina situations would proceed throughout May-July; a 50 per cent likelihood they’d proceed between August and October; and about 50 per cent for them to proceed from November to January 2023.
“Should La Nina persist through or redevelop by summer 2022-2023, the current event would qualify as a ‘triple-dip’.
“Since 1950, there have solely been two different triple-dips — that’s, three consecutive La Nina occasions.
“They were in 1998-2000 and 1973-1975,” he stated.
‘Triple dip’: Niwa predicts rare weather phenomenon for New Zealand & More Latest News Update
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