Modelling predicts that New Zealand’s next Covid-19 wave may come by spring, causing experts to caution people against getting too complacent.
Auckland University’s Dr Dion O’Neale, from Te Pūnaha Matatini’s Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa, told Breakfast the size of that outbreak, and how soon it would come, could still be influenced by people’s behaviour and how fast immunities would wane.
Case numbers continued to decline across the country. Monday’s seven-day rolling average of new cases of 7986 was a drop from 10,169 the week before. The seven-day rolling average of people dying with Covid-19 had stayed constant at 14 compared to the week before.
The outbreak had also plateaued in Auckland – on Saturday, for the first time in the Omicron outbreak, it didn’t have the highest new daily community cases.
“Covid’s not going away. It’ll stick around in the community at about the level it’s at – or at least in Auckland at the moment. Some other regions taking some time to come down off those peaks to plateau,” O’Neale said.
Once all parts of the country came down from their peak, the country could see about 5000 cases a day nationwide, he said.
“We’ll sit there until something changes. That could be people changing their behaviours and deciding… ‘I don’t need to wear a mask anymore, didn’t get sick last week.’”
That change in attitude, combined with winter’s typical increase in respiratory illnesses and waning immunity – from catching the virus or vaccinations – could see the next wave come by late winter to early spring, O’Neale said.
He added it was very difficult to account for people’s behaviour in modelling, but that people had been cautious overall.
“People have been good, I think, about trying to reduce their risk and protecting others around them.”
He said New Zealand’s Covid-19 case numbers were better off because of it.
O’Neale urged Kiwis to continue being cautious to protect those around them who could be more vulnerable.
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