Australia’s economic growth slows in March quarter despite rise in household spending

Australia’s economic growth slowed in the March quarter as rising spending by households, companies and governments couldn’t counter a dive in web exports.

In the primary three months of 2022, gross home product rose to an annual charge of three.3%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics stated. That eased from the sooner reported annual tempo of 4.2% and in contrast with about 3% forecast by economists.

The quarterly charge of growth was 0.8% reaching a report $527.7bn, and marked the second consecutive quarter of enlargement. Wages confirmed a pick-up whereas a number of inflation measures rose, one to the best in 34 years, stoking considerations that the Reserve Bank of Australia must hike rates of interest quicker and sooner to curb inflation.

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The GDP growth tempo was anticipated to gradual after the ABS reported on Tuesday that the nation’s present account surplus had shrunk by $5.7bn to $7.5bn in seasonally adjusted phrases for the quarter, shaving 1.7% off total growth alone.

Domestic closing demand, although, contributed 1.6 proportion factors to GDP growth, with households making up half of that. Government spending delivered 0.6 proportion factors of growth, pushed by additional spending on well being and flood reduction in New South Wales and Queensland, the ABS stated. Business, too, added to their shares.

“Household consumption continued to drive growth this quarter,” stated Sean Crick, the appearing head of nationwide accounts on the ABS. “Following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, household spending on transport services, hotels, cafes and restaurants, and recreation and culture increased.”

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The quarterly GDP numbers are the primary main economic figures to be launched because the Albanese Labor authorities took workplace after their 21 May election victory.

The March knowledge offered a snapshot of the momentum of the economy that the incoming ministers inherited. It additionally confirmed worth pressures had been mounting in the beginning of the yr, supporting the case for an additional rise in official rates of interest when the RBA board meets subsequent Tuesday.

The new treasurer, Jim Chalmers, stated the figures had been a glimpse of the “economic mess” Labor had inherited from the Morrison authorities.

“Skyrocketing inflation is a big challenge, falling real wages is a big challenge, and the impact of interest rate rises that the Reserve Bank governor [Philip Low] has flagged is a big challenge,” he stated.

“Even where some of these numbers on the surface might be pleasing compared to some of the diabolical numbers we’ve had over the last couple of years, they’re still short of what the former government was hoping for.”

Australia dealing with ‘perfect storm’ in power market

Among the deviations from the pre-election fiscal outlook ready by treasury was a quarterly GDP growth tempo of 0.8%, in contrast with 1.8%, Chalmers stated. Similarly, new enterprise funding at 1.4% was about half the forecast 2.7%, whereas exports shrank 0.9% versus the 4.2% growth predicted in the outlook.

Not captured by Wednesday’s nationwide accounts was the emergence of “a perfect storm of conditions and challenges in our energy market”, Chalmers stated, referring to hovering wholesale electrical energy and gasoline costs, which have already compelled some market caps to be launched and retailers to turn away customers.

Australia’s economy shrank less than many other rich nations during the pandemic and its rebound has also been less dramatic than some. The European Union’s economies, for instance, expanded 5.1% in the March quarter from a year earlier, and the UK posted an 8.7% jump.

The US grew at an annual clip of 3.6% although rising interest rates pushed the world’s largest economy into a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction. That fate may extend to other countries as their central banks hike interest rates to curb inflation.

The deflator used by the ABS to correct for price increases in Australia rose 2.9%, the fastest pace since the March quarter of 1988.

For the goods and services we trade with the world, export prices rose 9.6% while the cost of imports rose 3.5%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February was partly responsible, although commodity prices started to rise before then.

For domestic demand, the “price deflator” increased 1.4%, the highest since the GST’s introduction in 2000, reflecting strong demand and rising costs. The 5.1% headline consumer price inflation reported last month for the March quarter was also at two-decade highs.

Compensation to employees rose 5.5%, a number that economists will also zero in on. Before Wednesday’s data release, ANZ had said a 5% pace would keep speculation of a 40 basis point rise in the cash rate at the June RBA meeting “very much alive”.

Investors earlier this week were already rating that there was a three-in-four chance the RBA raising would life the cash rate to 0.75% when the board meets on Tuesday.

The household savings dropped two percentage points to 11.4%, financing the 1.5% increase in consumer spending. Sally Hunter, a senior economist at KPMG, said the ratio remained “comfortably above pre-pandemic levels”.

“Households are still relatively well-placed to weather the emerging headwinds, from higher inflation and rising interest rates,” Hunter says. “Notwithstanding this, momentum in spending is expected to cool through the rest of the year, as these drags combine with the end of the boost generated by the relaxation of restrictions.”

The floods in NSW and Queensland squelched growth in the construction sector, cutting it to just 0.2% even as governments and businesses were busy pouring money into projects all over the country.

Hunter, though, was wary about reading too much into the growth of total compensation for workers, noting they rose at a quarterly pace of 1.8%, or less than the 2% pace during the December quarter.

Profits for the mining sector were up 14.7%, accounting for more than half of all corporate profits.

Among the states, Victoria led growth in final demand, ahead of Western Australia, with Tasmania the laggard.

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