This Thursday, after at four o’clock in the afternoon the Indec announced the data of the July inflation around 7%the BCRA raise again the rate of fixed termswhich today are at 61 percent.
The swap of debt for dual bond advances: what will be the final accession?
Inflation of 90%: sharp rise in estimates made by analysts surveyed by the Central Bank
inflation
That rate is the one that moves today against the inflation forecast for the year of 90.2% that yielded for 2022 the REM of the Central Bank. Even among those who best forecast this variable for the short term (TOP-10), they expect an average inflation of 94.7%, which is equivalent to 15.4 points higher than the June survey (see separate).
In the new economic cabinet they recognize a great acceleration of inflation in the first 20 days of July, after the resignation of Guzmán, but they also reassure that the last days of the month it slackened, so they would be seeing a price rise of between 6.8 and 6.9%, which is still a very high figure, although less than 8% anticipated previously.
Which is why, as officials like to say, inflation “slowed down.”
This Thursday, after at four o’clock in the afternoon the Indec announced the data of the July inflation around 7%the BCRA raise again the rate of fixed termswhich today are at 61 percent.
Strong rate hike
In the Renovating Front they are aware of the importance of raise both the Treasury rate and the Leliq rate strongly for prevent the financial dollar and the blue from passing the psychological ceiling of $300 and the exchange rate gap widens even more, as happened last month, when the BCRA decided to give room for the rate to be moved by the Treasury after the 5.3% CPI figure for June.
The certainty among the massist economists is to raise the Central Bank’s monetary policy rate not so much based on the inflation data for July, which they confess is “already played,” but rather due to the increase in monthly inflation expectations of the REM from now to the end of the year and due to the dynamics of the MULC and the exchange rate gap.
In the Renovating Front they are aware of the importance of raise both the Treasury rate and the Leliq rate strongly for prevent the financial dollar and the blue from passing the psychological ceiling of $300 and the exchange rate gap widens even more
Reserves, under the magnifying glass
at the consultancy Delphi warned that BCRA sales accumulated since July have reached US$2 billion, leaving the reserves at the lowest level since the signing of the agreement with the IMF.
“The net reserves will not exceed US$ 1,000 million, which makes it more urgent to enter the dollars announced on Wednesday. It is key that next week the BCRA achieves positive balances in the foreign exchange market and the firm negative trend is interrupted,” Delphos warns.
In balance they maintain that the net reserves since Guzmán resigned were halved from US$4,723 to US$2,228 million.
“Achieving the export advance will not be easy, since few companies have the capacity to obtain commercial loans in hard currency. REPO is a complex operation that takes time and also requires collateral (sovereign bonds in foreign currency and law) whose price is rock bottom”.
The certainty among the massist economists is to raise the Central Bank’s monetary policy rate not so much based on the inflation data for July, which they confess is “already played,” but rather due to the increase in monthly inflation expectations of the REM from now to the end of the year and due to the dynamics of the MULC and the exchange rate gap.
Limited REPO
In fact, the maximum amount that could be obtained from the REPO would be between US$1,500 million and US$2,000 million, Well, there are not so many bonuses to gauge.
The economic cabinet would like to execute it at the end of August or early September, provided that they close conditions and legal procedures.
what s turned to ruled out was to appraise shares of the Sustainability Guarantee Fund of the ANSeS, or put them up for sale since there is a law that prevents it, so it should go through Congress and the government and opposition parties agree to sell the shares, which today are at auction price.
“Mission impossible,” say official sources, knowing that no one will want to put their signature on it.