Total Factor Productivity of the United Kingdom agricultural industry, provisional estimate 2021 & More News Here

This launch presents the provisional estimate^{[footnote 1]} of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of the UK agricultural business for 2021. It additionally presents quantity indices for inputs and outputs. This launch is topic to a level of revision, owing to further information availability, when remaining estimates are printed later in the yr. There have additionally been small revisions to historic information on this launch, following information updates.

TFP is a measure of how properly inputs are transformed into outputs, giving a sign of the effectivity and competitiveness of the agricultural business. Although exterior elements corresponding to climate circumstances or illness outbreaks could have a short-term impression on productiveness, it’s developments that enhance productiveness over an extended interval that represent one of the principal drivers of agricultural earnings.

TFP estimates are derived from the mixture farm accounts information used to calculate UK Total Income from Farming (TIFF). TIFF estimates for 2021 are printed in parallel with these and may be discovered on GOV.UK.

Please notice, we’ve got re-based the information contained inside this launch to 1973. This is to enhance the consistency between the figures and tables offered inside. See part 5.2 Revisions for extra particulars

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1. Key messages

• TFP is estimated to have elevated by 2.9% between 2020 and 2021. This was pushed by a lower in the quantity of all inputs and a rise in the quantity of all outputs.

• The quantity of all outputs elevated by 2.6%. 2021 noticed will increase in quantity for all crop and livestock output classes, with the exception of fruit (-10.2%) and potatoes (-4.3%). These small decreases had been outweighed by bigger will increase throughout different outputs, significantly in the output of ‘other crops products’ (23.8%) and the output of cereals (22.8%).

• The quantity of all inputs decreased by 0.3%. This small lower in the quantity of inputs is the consequence of a combined sample of will increase and reduces in 2021. The inputs that noticed the largest share will increase had been plant safety merchandise (6.3%), fertilisers (4.5%) and animal feed (3.3%). Whereas these with the largest share decreases had been seeds (-11.8%), different items and companies (-5.6%) and whole upkeep (-4.5%).

Figure 1: Summary of key indices 2020 to 2021 (1973 = 100)

Item	2020	2021
All outputs	132.8	136.3
All inputs	86.3	86.1
Total issue productiveness	153.8	158.4

2. Long time period developments

Figure 2: Long time period pattern in TFP of the UK agricultural business (1973 = 100)

Download the full TFP dataset

TFP of the agricultural business in the United Kingdom elevated by 2.9% between 2020 and 2021. This was pushed by a rise in the quantity of all outputs and a lower in the quantity of all inputs. As proven in Figure 2, this continues the sample of annual fluctuations seen from round the yr 2000 onwards. Despite this annual variability, the long-term pattern remains to be one of gradual however general enchancment in TFP.

Since the sequence started in 1973, TFP has elevated by 58.4%, pushed by a rise in the quantity of all outputs by 36.3% and a lower in the quantity of all inputs by 13.9%.

3. Annual modifications, 2020 to 2021

3.1 All outputs

‘All outputs’ represents the change in quantity (expressed as an index primarily based to 1973) of all outputs bought off the farm, excluding transactions inside the agricultural business.

Table 1. Volume indices for outputs (1973 = 100)^(a)

Item	2020	2021	Annual Change
Output of cereals	143.0	175.6	22.8%
Output of industrial crops	194.8	210.8	8.2%
Output of forage vegetation	99.3	99.3	0.0%
Output of greens and horticultural merchandise	81.2	82.9	2.1%
Output of potatoes	98.7	94.5	-4.3%
Output of fruit	131.8	118.4	-10.2%
Output of different crop merchandise	99.2	122.8	23.8%
Total crop output	132.9	142.2	7.0%
Output of livestock (meat)	130.8	131.2	0.4%
Output of livestock merchandise	108.5	109.6	1.0%
Total livestock output	121.7	122.4	0.6%
Inseparable non-agricultural actions	548.9	534.7	-2.6%
All outputs	132.8	136.3	2.6%

^(a) AHDB stopped producing potato yield information and costs in the final half of 2021. Therefore, we’ve got checked out earlier developments for the lacking information and likewise sought views from stakeholders to estimate the worth and quantity of manufacturing for the sector.

View the full TFP desk

Download the full TFP dataset

• The quantity of all outputs elevated by 2.6% between 2020 and 2021. This was the consequence of a rise of 7.0% in the quantity of whole crop output and a rise of 0.6% in the quantity of whole livestock output.

• The largest share enhance inside whole crop output was in the output of ‘other crop products’, which elevated by 23.8%. This rise in different crop merchandise is due totally to will increase in the quantity of straw produced. 2021 noticed affordable crop yields leading to a 40.7% enhance in the quantity straw produced from 2020.

• The largest share lower inside whole crop output was in the output of fruit, which decreased by 10.2%. In 2021, manufacturing of fruit was severely impacted by chilly climate. Planting, bud break and early growth had been all delayed by moist and chilly climate throughout February and March, and in a single day frosts in April broken many flowering fruit crops. This led to a discount in fruit manufacturing general.

• The largest change in whole livestock output was in the output of livestock merchandise, which elevated by 1.0%. This rise in the quantity of livestock merchandise was pushed by will increase in the quantity of manufacturing of each eggs (6.0%) and different animal merchandise (11.8%).

3.2 All inputs

‘All inputs’ represents the change in quantity (expressed as an index primarily based to 1973) of all items and companies bought and consumed, excluding transactions inside the agricultural business.

Table 2: Volume indices for inputs (1973 = 100)

Item	2020	2021	Annual Change
Seeds	128.4	113.2	-11.8%
Energy	48.5	47.5	-2.0%
Fertilisers	66.2	69.2	4.5%
Plant safety merchandise	307.1	326.4	6.3%
Veterinary bills	116.7	116.5	-0.2%
Animal feed	134.9	139.4	3.3%
Total upkeep	59.9	57.2	-4.5%
FISIM	100.0	100.0	0.0%
Other items and companies	139.7	131.8	-5.6%
Intermediate consumption	104.7	104.1	-0.6%
Consumption of mounted capital	122.0	122.3	0.3%
All labour	51.1	51.0	-0.1%
Land	97.5	97.3	-0.2%
All inputs and entrepreneurial labour	86.3	86.1	-0.3%

View the full TFP desk

Download the full TFP dataset

• The quantity of all inputs decreased by 0.3% between 2020 and 2021. As seen in Table 2, this small lower in the quantity of inputs is the consequence of a combined sample of modifications in 2021, with the quantity of some inputs rising and others lowering.

• The largest share enhance in inputs was plant safety merchandise, which elevated by 6.3%. This enhance was largely pushed by the use of fungicides and different plant safety merchandise (corresponding to plant development regulators and molluscicides), which elevated in 2021 because of a bigger winter cropping space in addition to comparatively excessive illness stress. These elements resulted in the use of extra strong remedy measures over a bigger space. Additional plant safety merchandise, corresponding to pesticides, noticed decreased use in 2021 because of a discount in space of spring crops. The enhance in winter cropping and discount in spring cropping areas, displays a return to extra conventional cropping practices in 2021, following an uncommon 2020 the place winter sowing was badly affected by moist climate.

• The largest share lower in inputs was seeds, which decreased by 11.8%. The lower in seeds seen in 2021 was the consequence of a return to extra regular sowing practices, following an uncommon 2020. In 2020, poor climate circumstances throughout drilling of winter wheat led to many farmers switching to spring sowing, rising seed utilization. 2021 noticed beneficial circumstances for each winter and spring sowing of crops, resulting in a return to winter sowing and a discount in the quantity of seeds used general.

4. Partial productiveness

Partial productiveness exhibits the impression key inputs have on productiveness. It measures whole outputs in opposition to a component of the inputs.

Table 3: Partial issue productiveness (1973 = 100)

Item	2020	2021	Annual Change
Productivity by intermediate consumption	126.8	130.9	3.2%
Productivity by capital consumption	108.9	111.4	2.3%
Productivity by labour	260.2	267.3	2.7%
Productivity by land	136.2	140.1	2.9%

Figure 3: Long time period pattern in partial productiveness indicators (1973 = 100)

Download the full TFP dataset

Table 3 and Figure 3 present that labour is the key enter driving productiveness good points. Productivity by labour exhibits a gentle enhance over the complete interval since 1973. Labour volumes at the moment are roughly half of what they had been in 1973. However, newer development in labour productiveness is because of elevated output moderately than a discount in labour quantity.

5. About these statistics

5.1 Contact particulars

5.2 Revisions

This launch represents the provisional estimate for TFP 2021 in the United Kingdom. At the time of publication, not all information is offered and a few values have been forecasted. Consequently, this launch is topic to a level of revision when remaining estimates are printed later in the yr.

As a consequence of extra information turning into accessible over time there have been minor revisions to earlier years on this launch. These revisions are supposed to boost the precision of these estimates. Sometimes further revisions are essential to refine the methodology or appropriate historic errors.

Below are a listing of key revisions which were carried out since the final publication:

• The TFP information sequence has been re-based to the yr 1973 (1973 = 100). In earlier releases the information in the figures and tables had been offered at totally different base years. By presenting the information sequence, tables and figures to the identical base yr, we goal to extend the consistency of the information inside this launch. Re-basing has no materials impression on the interpretation of these information, as the yr on yr share modifications will stay the identical.

• The 2020 volumes for many outputs have been revised, owing to further information turning into accessible since the 2020 second estimate printed in December 2021.

• More correct information was acquired for the calculation of whole upkeep and capital consumption/formation, resulting in some minor revisions to the again sequence.

• The indices for eggs have been revised from 2018 onwards, owing to an error the place unpacked eggs weren’t included in the whole worth utilized in the calculation of the quantity indices.

• The methodology for calculating the worth and quantity of manufacturing of potatoes has modified for 2021 in comparison with earlier years. AHDB stopped producing potato yield information and costs in the final half of 2021. Therefore, we’ve got checked out earlier developments for the lacking information and likewise sought views from stakeholders to estimate the worth and quantity of manufacturing for the sector.

5.3 National statistics standing

National Statistics standing implies that our statistics meet the highest requirements of trustworthiness, high quality and public worth, and it’s our accountability to take care of compliance with these requirements.

The continued designation of these statistics as National Statistics was confirmed in December 2017 following a compliance test by the Office for Statistics Regulation Total issue productiveness of the UK agricultural business.

The statistics final underwent a full evaluation (Assessment Report 271 Statistics on Agriculture) in opposition to the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014.

Since the newest assessment by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we’ve got continued to adjust to the Code of Practice for Statistics and have enhanced information high quality by reviewing methodologies and information sources.

For normal enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

5.4 Background to TFP

These outcomes are produced as half of the preparation of mixture agricultural accounts UK National Statistics. The agricultural accounts are additionally used to provide different measures of efficiency of the agricultural business, together with Total Income from Farming.

5.5 Quality assurance

Defra has in place high quality assurance processes to test the accuracy and reliability of the mixture agricultural accounts that features:

• Ongoing assessment of strategies employed in the calculation of the accounts.

• Assessment of the high quality of the estimates of elements of the accounts with inner and exterior consultants.

A abstract high quality report for this statistical launch may be discovered on the GOV.UK web site.

This is an summary notice which isn’t release-specific however will probably be reviewed and up to date at common intervals. It pulls collectively key qualitative data on the numerous dimensions of high quality in addition to offering a abstract of strategies used to compile the output. It offers customers with data on usability and health for function of these estimates.

5.6 Main makes use of and customers of TFP

TFP is used along side different financial data to:

• Inform coverage selections and to assist monitor and consider present insurance policies referring to agriculture in the UK by Government.

• Inform stakeholders of the efficiency of the agricultural business.

• Inform analysis into the financial efficiency of the agricultural business.

• As an impression indicator of Government coverage.

5.7 User engagement

As half of our ongoing dedication to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we want to strengthen our engagement with customers of these statistics and higher perceive the use made of them and the sorts of selections that they inform. Consequently, we invite customers to make themselves identified, to advise us of the use they do, or would possibly, make of these statistics, and what their needs are in phrases of engagement. We welcome any enquiries about these statistics and are eager to listen to what we may do to enhance this launch for customers. Please take the time to finish a brief suggestions kind to assist us higher perceive consumer wants.

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5.8 Future publications

The remaining estimate of Total Factor Productivity in the UK for 2021 will probably be printed in winter 2022

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