The Future of Distributed Wind in the United States: Considerations for Unlocking Terawatt-Level Potential

NREL’s Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study Finds the Most Promising Locations, Sectors
for Distributed Wind To Play a Meaningful Role in the U.S. Energy Future

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The U.S. federal authorities has set a objective of 100% clear electrical energy in 2035 and a
net-zero carbon financial system in 2050. To obtain these bold targets, all types of
renewable energy will probably be necessary—together with distributed wind.

Distributed wind power refers to wind applied sciences deployed as distributed power sources. These applied sciences
are place-based options that assist people, communities, and companies transitioning
to carbon-free electrical energy.

Distributed wind might be positioned in behind-the-meter purposes, the place the system
straight offsets a particular finish person’s consumption of retail electrical energy provide, or
in front-of-the-meter purposes the place the system is interconnected to the distribution
community and offers community-scale power provide whereas bolstering the robustness,
reliability, and resiliency of the native distribution community. Distributed wind installations
can vary from a less-than-1-kilowatt off-grid wind turbine that powers telecommunications
tools to a 10-megawatt community-scale power facility.

From 2003 by 2020, over 87,000 wind generators had been deployed in distributed purposes
throughout all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guam, totaling 1,055
megawatts in cumulative capability. Iowa, Minnesota, Massachusetts, California, and
Texas lead the nation with the most distributed wind capability at present put in.
As extra communities come to know the position that distributed power sources
may play in their very own power transitions and search their environmental, financial,
and social advantages, distributed wind may play a singular position in the future U.S.
grid.

To discover alternatives for widespread deployment of distributed wind in 2035, the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) accomplished the Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office. The extremely
detailed, complete evaluation reveals distributed wind has the potential to profitably
present practically 1,400 gigawatts of capability—at this time. That is sufficient power to provide
greater than half of present U.S. annual electrical energy consumption.

But the proper circumstances should exist to appreciate the alternatives for distributed wind.

Modeling Innovations Provide Granular Insights

The Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study builds on NREL’s 2016 first-ever exploratory evaluation of future alternatives for behind-the-meter distributed wind methods.

For each the 2016 and 2022 research, NREL used its Distributed Wind (dWind) mannequin—a
module inside the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™) mannequin suite. This yr, NREL added new, higher-resolution knowledge and modeling capabilities
to dWind to broaden on the 2016 research. Notably, dWind now consists of real-world dimensions
from a knowledge set of 150 million parcels of property in the United States to measurement generators
for these areas. NREL additionally improved dWind to think about front-of-the-meter wind
methods. The mannequin will probably be open sourced as half of dGen later this yr.

“The potential of distributed wind tasks can differ extensively with native circumstances,
so it is necessary to review it at the most detailed stage,” stated Kevin McCabe, NREL
analyst and dGen developer. “Our research is one of the first demonstrations of parcel-level
distributed power sources evaluation and advances wind financial and technical potential
assessments with unprecedented decision. With this new stage of element, we are able to determine
developments by land-use sort, end-use sector, and geography.”

With these new modeling capabilities, dWind can now discover extra community-scale distributed
wind purposes that might take part in the wholesale electrical energy market and a
broader array of fee schemes. NREL modeled future situations with a spread of
distributed wind system sizes in behind-the-meter and front-of-the-meter purposes
for particular land-use sorts, specializing in agricultural, business, and industrial
areas.

Results: Economic Potential of Distributed Wind

Consistent with the 2016 research, NREL finds U.S. distributed wind has considerable financial
potential, or the potential that may have a optimistic return on funding. Entire
areas of the nation may profitably present a whole bunch of gigawatts at this time if deployed.
In 2035, terawatts of capability could possibly be potential.

NREL examined three main components that might assist unlock distributed wind’s potential:

1. Improved financing and efficiency to cut back the price of wind power
2. Relaxed siting restrictions to open up extra obtainable land for wind improvement—a
   earlier NREL research revealed a 7X distinction in complete U.S. wind technical potential in 2050 between the
   least and most restrictive siting restrictions
3. An funding tax credit score renewal and internet metering. Currently, clients can obtain
   a 26% tax credit score for qualifying wind generators beneath 100 kilowatts and photo voltaic panels
   put in between 2020 and 2022. The tax credit score will expire in 2024 except Congress
   renews it. Net metering is a metering and billing association the place distributed power
   era system homeowners are compensated for any era that’s not used and exported
   to the utility grid.

Under the most optimistic circumstances—together with aggressive price declines, extra relaxed
siting constraints than at this time, and strategic extension and enlargement of present tax
credit and insurance policies—NREL finds front-of-the-meter wind may present over 4,000 gigawatts
of capability and behind-the-meter wind may present over 1,700 gigawatts of capability
in 2035. In the least optimistic circumstances, front-of-the-meter wind capability decreases
to 42 gigawatts and behind-the-meter wind capability to 440 gigawatts in 2035.

“Our evaluation means that know-how price discount, efficiency enhancements, and
extra relaxed siting restrictions are important steps wanted to appreciate the deployment
potential of distributed wind,” stated Eric Lantz, principal investigator of the research.
“At the similar time, incentives like the funding tax credit score, financing, and compensation
mechanisms like internet metering are additionally necessary to reinforce system economics—and drive
industry-wide progress that may basically alter the outlook for distributed wind
applied sciences.”

Results: Regions, Sectors With the Lowest-Hanging Fruit

NREL finds the areas with the highest potential for distributed wind are inclined to have
a mixture of high-quality wind, comparatively excessive electrical energy charges for behind-the-meter
purposes, larger wholesale energy charges for front-of-the-meter purposes, and
siting availability.

The Midwest and Heartland areas total have the highest potential for distributed
wind, and the Pacific and Northeast areas have important potential for enlargement
of behind-the-meter distributed wind deployments.

As modeled, agricultural land has the highest distributed wind potential, however residential,
business, and industrial land even have gigawatt-scale potential, significantly for
behind-the-meter purposes.

NREL finds states with the most near-term potential for behind-the-meter purposes
embody Texas, Minnesota, Montana, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Indiana. States with the
most near-term potential for front-of-the-meter purposes embody Oklahoma, Nebraska,
Illinois, Kansas, Iowa, and South Dakota.

States throughout a lot of the Northeast in addition to California have decrease portions of
worthwhile distributed wind potential, however there are choose areas with important
wind sources, which when mixed with typically larger retail electrical energy charges
in these areas means there are compelling alternatives in there too.

Results: Distributed Wind Potential in Disadvantaged Communities

Some communities have lengthy endured the detrimental points of power and local weather change and
face extra limitations to accessing clear power. On-site power era, like distributed wind, may assist scale back this inequity
by extending the advantages of clear power to extra communities.

NREL modeled the technical and financial potential of distributed wind in parcels of
property in communities with excessive threat to environmental hazards and/or excessive proportions
of low-income households.

As modeled, deprived communities characterize 43% of all appropriate U.S. parcels for
front-of-the-meter wind, and 47% for behind-the-meter wind. There are important
alternatives to broaden distributed wind in deprived communities in the subsequent
decade, significantly for behind-the-meter deployments in Texas, Montana, Michigan,
and California.

“With continued efforts to cut back price, enhance efficiency, and assume extra broadly
about options to deployment, distributed wind may empower communities throughout the
United States to transition to wash power,” Lantz said. “Taking steps to assist notice
the potential of distributed wind will probably be particularly necessary in future situations
with so much of wind power, as envisioned underneath economy-wide decarbonization. In these
situations, distributed wind’s means to suit particular niches and supply native electrical energy
provide may advance the nation’s means to make use of wind power.”

Read the full Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study report. Learn extra about NREL’s Distributed Wind Research and Energy Analysis, in addition to the Distributed Wind Research Program at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Technology’s Office.

Learn More About the Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study at May 24 Webinar

To be taught extra about findings from the Distributed Wind Futures Study, be a part of a free
webinar from 12 to 1 p.m. MT on Tuesday, May 24. Please register to attend.

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