More stick and less carrot: the military show is over and Beijing reduces its options to keep Taiwan – Up Jobs News

NEW YORK.- It was a 72-hour show of missiles, battleships and fighter-bombers that swarmed around Taiwan like a wall, a blinding warning intended for television against what Beijing sees as an increasingly open challenge, supported by Washingtonto his claim on the island.

“We remain on high alert, ready for battle at all times, ready to fight when necessary”, declared Zu Guanghong, captain of the Chinese navy, in a video of the People’s Liberation Army about the military exercises that conclude on Sunday. “We have the determination and the ability to mount a direct and forceful attack against any invader who threatens the unification of the homeland, and we will be relentless.”

However, while China’s display of military might discourages other Western politicians from imitating Nancy Pelosi, whose visit to Taiwan last week infuriated Beijing, that spectacle further reduces her chances of winning the island through diplomatic negotiation. The “shock and awe” tactics employed by Beijing could reconfirm Taiwanese doubts about the possibility of reaching a peaceful and lasting agreement with the ruling Communist Party of China, especially while it is led by Xi Jinping.

“Military exercises do not change anything, and after this one will come otherssays Li Wen-te, a 63-year-old retired fisherman from Liuqiu, an island off Taiwan’s southwestern coast, less than 10 kilometers from China’s military exercise zone.

“They play the thugs and harass us as usual”, says Li, and completes it with a proverb: “You shake their hands and they take each other up to the elbow”.

Now Xi Jinping has shown a willingness to wield his intimidating military force to counter what he sees as a dangerous alliance of the Taiwanese opposition with its American supporters. Military drills in six areas around Taiwan, which on Sunday included joint exercises by the navy and air force to test their capabilities to launch a long-range air attack, They also served for the Chinese military to rehearse a blockade of the island for an eventual invasion.

In the face of these constant pressures, the policy of incentives that China had been using to seduce Taiwan towards unification could lose its effects. In earlier times and better relations between the two countries, China welcomed investments, agricultural products and celebrities from Taiwan.

The likely result will be a deepening of mutual mistrust, which, taken to an extreme, could drag Beijing and Washington into direct warfare.

“It is not something that is going to explode tomorrow, but it multiplies the chances of a crisisconflict, or even war with the Americans over Taiwan,” says Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who was previously a diplomat in Beijing.

Taiwan was never ruled by the Communist Party, but Beijing maintains that the island is historically and legally part of Chinese territory. The Chinese nationalist forces that fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the civil war also always maintained that the island was part of the extended China that they had ruled.

But since the rise of Taiwanese democracy in the 1990s, more and more of the island’s inhabitants feel thousands of kilometers away from the values ​​and culture of the People’s Republic. And mistrust of political authoritarianism in China not only continued, but grew along with the island’s economic ties to the mainland.

“China’s policy of economic incentives towards Taiwan has fallen to its lowest point since the end of the Cold War.said Wu Jieh-min, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institution.

“China’s current card is to gradually increase the military threat and continue preparations for the use of force, until a favorable opportunity arises to launch a large-scale military offensive on the island.”

Since the late 1970s, Deng Xiaoping and other Chinese leaders tried to convince Taiwan to accept unification under the “one country, two systems” framework. which promised legislative, religious, and economic policy autonomy, among other areas, as long as the island accepted Chinese sovereignty.

Xi keeps promising Taiwan the same “one country, two systems” frameworkand perhaps offer him economic and political incentives again if that can influence the island’s presidential elections, scheduled for early 2024.

The President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen, is about to finish her second term and cannot be re-elected. A potential successor to his own force, the Democratic Progressive Party, which rejects unification and favors independence, could be less accommodating of Beijing.

After that election, China’s leaders are likely to “want to show some substantive progress in Taiwan, not necessarily unification, but at least some results”says Wang Hsin-hsien, a professor at Taipei’s National Chengchi University who specializes in Chinese politics. “Xi Jinping is the type of man who repays enmity with a vengeance, and also returns kindnesses, but when he pays with a vengeance, he pays double.”

The big puzzle is whether Xi already has a timetable in mind for Taiwan. The president has hinted that his vision of China’s “rejuvenation” as a prosperous and powerful global power hinges on unification with Taiwan. According to Xi, that rejuvenation will be achieved by mid-century, which is why some see that moment as a deadline for his ambitions on the island.

“It is a lit fuse of 27 years duration, but it can be consumed slowly or quicklysays Rudd, the former Australian prime minister and current president of the Asia Society. “You will have to start worrying seriously in the early 2030s, not only because of the countdown to 2049, but also because it will be the limit of Xi Jinping’s political life.”

In 2019, in a speech to set the agenda on his policy towards Taiwan, Xi reaffirmed that China hoped for a peaceful unification with the island, but did not rule out the use of weapons.

He also asked to analyze ways to update or adjust the “one country, two systems” model for the case of Taiwan, and the Chinese government appointed several academic experts to prepare the project. The new framework, Xi noted, “It must fully consider the reality of Taiwan and lead to lasting order and stability on the island after unification.”

“I think that at the moment the military threat and ostentation are calibrated to work mostly as deterrents”, says Willian Klein, a former US diplomat in Beijing and current fellow at consultancy FGS Global, referring to China’s accumulation of power. “Their strategy is to reduce the universe of possibilities until the only possible outcome is the one they want.”

But the proposals for Taiwan drawn up by Chinese academics expose the chasm between what Beijing wants and what most Taiwanese would be willing to accept.

Polls show very few Taiwanese willing to accept unification under China’s terms. According to the latest survey by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, just 1.3% of those surveyed want unification as soon as possible, while 5.1% want full independence as soon as possible. The rest—the vast majority—basically opted for some version of the current ambiguous status quo.

By Chris Buckley, Amy Chang Chien, and John Liu

Translation of Jaime Arrambide