The leaving Mexico of trade agreement with the United States and Canada is not the scenario contemplated by the private sectorsince there is confidence in reaching agreements in the first phase of consultations, said the Business Coordinating Council (CCE).
For the body, in the worst case, perhaps one of the four issues under discussion will seek solution in international panelswhich should be avoided to subtract uncertainty from the investment outlook, already affected by the context of war Y high volatility.
“Actually, it is a scenario that we have not contemplated at the moment, we hope that all the differences can be clarified or resolved during the consultations, and if a panel is reached, the support of the specialists will be required and the technical details and commercials that have been pending, it would be a scenario that we would not want to go through, ”said sources from the highest business leadership.
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He added that this would add to threats from abroad such as the war in ukrainethe Chinese threatsand the climate changewhich are factors that contribute to destabilize economies. “Therefore, we have a great opportunity to strengthen our region to better face these risks and turn crises into opportunities to achieve better investments, jobs and economic stability.”
The topics under discussion
Four issues are on the table based on the requests to start the consultation process in light of the USMCAby the United States and Canada.
One has to do with requests from the Energy Regulatory Commission that they have not been resolved, the issue of the extension until 2025 granted to Pemex so as not to have to comply with the sulfur reduction standard in commercial diesel and that was not given to the other companies; the issue of the obligation for companies to to buy the natural gas to Pemex and CFE, and the dispatch priority of the CFE, in accordance with the law of the electricity industry.
“We believe that leaving is not a scenario that they are considering, but this scenario would be the worst of all because what we have gained in these three decades with NAFTA and the first two years of T-MEC has been growth for the country by being part of the most competitive region in the world, that has led us to an extraordinary development that we must not lose”, said José Medina Mora, president of Coparmex.
Of the three scenarios considered by the agency, the most optimistic is reach agreements in the consultation period; the intermediate is that three of the four issues are resolved and that of the CFE dispatch priority goes to the international panels, a process that could last until May 2023.
If the international panels agree with the United States and Canada, Mexico has the option to modify that dispatch priority or not modify it and in accordance with the provisions of the T-MEC, the United States and Canada can compensate with the imposition of tariffs.
“In the event that Mexico did not change once the international panels agreed with the United States and Canada, they could seek to compensate for the loss. An estimate of between 10 thousand and 30 thousand million dollars has been made by imposing tariffs on Mexican imports”, explained Medina Mora.
Mexico must yield
Specialists in international trade consulted by the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP), point out that the Mexican government must yield in several of the points under consultation in order to avoid reaching an international panel that would be very costly for the economy, said Carlos Hurtado, general director of the center.
“The CEESP has a lot of capacity to consult experts and the general opinion is that the Government is going to have to give up several things in the consultations so as not to reach the panel and those who know, think that it will,” he said at a conference. .
The problem, he added, will be how not to back down from certain principles that are important to the President, and he referred to estimates of the cost of between 10 billion and 30 billion dollars that the compensation that the governments of the United States and Canada could have seek from the imposition of tariffs on products imported from Mexico.