Johnson’s lurch to the right adds to momentum for leadership vote

Boris Johnson’s lurch to the right after Partygate is fuelling much more anger amongst insurgent Tory MPs, with momentum now constructing for a leadership problem subsequent week.

Conservative whips spent the first day of recess anxiously phoning spherical the parliamentary social gathering to shore up assist for the prime minister, as 4 extra MPs referred to as on him to resign, together with Jeremy Wright, the former legal professional common.

Several Tory MPs informed the Guardian they believed the threshold of 54 letters withdrawing assist for Johnson was shut to being crossed – or could have been already. This would set off a secret poll on whether or not they nonetheless have faith in the prime minister.

Contact Guardian politics

It is known that Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, could have to use his personal judgment about whether or not to announce the milestone being handed right away if it happens whereas parliament is off this week, or wait till Monday, when the House of Commons returns after the Queen’s jubilee celebrations.

One backbench critic of the PM stated MPs from the 2019 consumption have been “gathering their courage” to put in letters earlier than subsequent Monday, however have been worrying about repercussions if No 10 have been to determine them after an unsuccessful coup. They stated the opposition to Johnson was more and more coordinated and decided to set off a vote, with nearly 30 MPs having publicly declared their opposition up to now.

In his assertion withdrawing assist for the prime minister, Wright stated Johnson had finished “real and lasting damage” to the establishment of presidency, and whereas he couldn’t make sure that the prime minister had misled parliament, Johnson had been at finest “negligent” in how he had approached the subject.

Elliot Colburn, a Tory MP with a small majority towards the Lib Dems, stated he had put in a letter “some time ago”, whereas Nickie Aiken, the Cities of London and Westminster MP whose council turned Labour this month, referred to as on Johnson to convey an finish to the state of affairs by submitting a no-confidence letter in himself. Tory MP Andrew Bridgen additionally informed constituents he had resubmitted his letter.

The dismay over Johnson’s premiership is worsening amongst Tories in so-called “Blue Wall” seats vulnerable to shedding them to the Lib Dems, and “Red Wall” marginals the place they’ve slim majorities over Labour.

With Johnson’s future in the stability, No 10 has begun launching quite a few rightwing, nationalistic insurance policies in latest weeks. These embody the return of imperial measures, plans to override the Northern Ireland protocol, a touch about increasing grammar colleges, a evaluate of fracking, and repeated guarantees to tear up extra EU regulation.

A cupboard minister informed the Guardian that Johnson appeared to be making an attempt to cease the right of the social gathering turning towards him in the occasion of a leadership problem, citing insurance policies similar to the evaluate of fracking – which is electorally unpopular however appeals to a minority in parliament.

But Tory pollsters and a few centrist MPs warned that this “core vote” route was the improper route to go down with public belief in Johnson so low amongst swing voters. Tobias Ellwood, a Tory former minister and chair of the defence committee, warned: “We will lose the next election on the current trajectory as reflected in recent elections.

“There is not only just a concern on the conduct of behaviour in No 10, because that has breached the trust with the British people, it is now concerns about No 10 thinking what our policies are.”

On the weights and measures coverage, he informed Sky News: “There will be some people in our party which will like this nostalgic policy in the hope that it’s enough to win the next election. But this is not the case. This is not one-nation Conservative thinking that is required to appeal beyond our base.”

One Tory cupboard supply stated the imperial measures coverage was “absolutely bananas”, whereas one other cupboard supply stated they’d “no idea which muppet had come up with that idea”, as “this is not what the government’s overall strategy is about”.

Another Conservative MP stated he represented a seat in the “heart of middle England” and about half of the core Conservative voters there had misplaced religion in the prime minister.

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Some native authorities leaders additionally expressed a insecurity in Johnson. Rishi Sunak’s native council chief, Carl Les, the Conservative chief of North Yorkshire county council, stated he thought it was time for a leadership election, blaming Johnson for heavy losses in the native elections.

“I am very disappointed that the strong majority we had in North Yorkshire has diminished down to a working majority, but only just, and a lot of the comment we were getting on the doorstep was about the impact of Partygate,” stated Les.

The warnings from MPs and councillors have been echoed by pollsters and political strategists, together with former No 10 advisers James Johnson and Will Tanner. Both stated Johnson was on target to lose the election by swinging to the right as an alternative of specializing in delivering targets on colleges, hospitals, housing and the value of residing.

Tanner, a former No 10 aide and the director of Conservative thinktank Onward, stated: “My view is that while it’s understandable that the prime minister and Downing Street would want to demonstrate their commitment to rightwing policy issues, to satisfy some of his backbenchers at a moment where clearly the prime minister is worried about his future, those issues are not going to win the Conservative party the next election.”

He stated he had “never sat in a focus group or conducted a poll where issues like imperial weights and measures or Channel 4 privatisation has come up repeatedly” from the voters Johnson is looking for to court docket.

He added: “It is NHS, immigration, crime, wages, good jobs in my town. Those are the fundamentals that the Conservative party needs to be focusing on, not these quite small and niche issues, which only matter to a few people.”

James Johnson, a pollster at JL Partners, who labored for Theresa May,
stated: “Some of these things that might have raised a smile in the past will actually invite ridicule, the pounds and ounces thing being
a good example of that. We’re approaching the situation with Johnson similar to one we faced with Corbyn, where the individual policies might be popular, but the brand attached to them is toxic.”

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