The Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) Quarter 3 2021 was revealed at this time by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).
NICEI Q3 2021 revealed
NI Economic output elevated over the quarter, yr, two yr and rolling 4 quarters
- The NICEI signifies that financial output elevated by 1.5 per cent over the quarter to September 2021. Meanwhile, financial output within the yr to September 2021 elevated by 4.6 per cent in actual phrases in comparison with the identical interval within the earlier yr ie Quarter 3 2020.
- Where annual development within the NICEI seems significantly sturdy, it is very important recognise there was some volatility within the NICEI through the COVID pandemic. As lockdown measures had been launched to mitigate the unfold of COVID-19 and subsequently eased, this result in the NICEI falling to a collection low in Q2 2020, adopted by the very best quarterly enhance within the NICEI to Q3 2020.
- As a outcome, it’s maybe price contemplating biennial change which compares the change between Quarter 3 2021 and Quarter 3 2019 (the earlier Quarter 3 earlier than the pandemic). In phrases of biennial change, NI financial output has elevated at a flatter charge (3.0 per cent) in comparison with the annual change (4.6 per cent) within the NICEI to Q3 2021. Furthermore, in Quarter 3 2021, NI Economic Output reached a 13 yr excessive, returning to ranges of financial output final exceeded in Q3 2008.
- The enhance within the NICEI over the most recent quarter (1.5 per cent) was largely pushed by elevated exercise within the Services and Public Sectors; which had optimistic contributions of 1.4 share factors (pps) and 0.2 pps respectively.
NI Economic Activity elevated at a quicker charge in comparison with UK GDP over the quarter, 2 yr and rolling annual common
- Although the measures will not be produced on a completely equal foundation, comparisons with the UK present that NI Economic Activity elevated at a quicker charge than UK GDP over the quarter (1.5 per cent vs 1.1 per cent), biennially (i.e. over 2 years, 3.0 per cent vs -1.6 per cent) and the rolling annual common (5.8 per cent vs 3.8 per cent). However UK GDP grew at a quicker charge than the NICEI over the yr (4.6 per cent for NI and 6.8 per cent for the UK).
Both the Public and Private sectors elevated over the quarter, yr, 2 yr and rolling 4 quarters
- NI’s Private sector output as measured by the NICEI elevated over the quarter (1.7 per cent), over the yr (5.4 per cent) and on a biennial foundation (3.1 per cent). Meanwhile, the NICEI Public Sector index elevated over the quarter (0.8 per cent), over the yr (2.0 per cent) and on a biennial foundation (2.9 per cent).
- For the Private sector, common development for the 4 quarters to Quarter 3 2021 in comparison with the earlier 4 quarters elevated by 7.2 per cent. Whilst the Public sector (worker jobs) index elevated by 1.2 per cent over the identical interval.
- The NICEI signifies the rise in financial development over the quarter, yr, 2 yr and rolling annual common1 to Quarter 3 2021 was largely pushed by elevated exercise within the Services Sector.
- The Index of Services (which accounts for 53 per cent of NI GVA) reached its collection excessive in Q3 2021 – exceeding the earlier collection excessive achieved in This autumn 2006, pre the 2007/08 world monetary disaster. It can also be price noting in Q3 2021 that not one of the remaining sectors of the NI economic system (Production, Construction2 or Public Sector) made a destructive contribution to NICEI development over the quarter, annual, biennial or rolling 4 quarter interval. This lead the NICEI and Private Sector Component Indices to succeed in a 13 yr excessive in Q3 2021, returning to ranges of output final exceeded in Q3 2008.
- Quarter 3 2021 was characterised to a level by an easing of lockdown restrictions, with financial exercise usually performing positively as evidenced within the NICEI. Economic exercise had elevated steadily in recent times (2013-2019) following the extended downturn put up 2007. Recently the NICEI and Private Sector Component Indices have recovered from their respective collection lows in Q2 2020 (which coincided with a interval of strict lockdown restrictions) and returned to ranges of financial output final exceeded in Q3 2008.
- While not totally equal, the NICEI estimates of output in NI and the ONS estimates of UK GDP present that each economies elevated over the quarter by 1.5 per cent for NI and 1.1 per cent for the UK. That stated, NI financial output elevated at a slower charge than the UK over the yr at a charge of 4.6 per cent for NI and 6.8 per cent for UK. Conversely, NI financial output fared higher than the UK when it comes to biennial development (Quarter 3 2021 vs Quarter 3 2019) growing 3.0 per cent while the UK suffered a decline of 1.6 per cent. Over the rolling annual common, (evaluating the final 4 quarters to the earlier 4 quarters) NI grew at a quicker charge than the UK, growing by 5.8 per cent while the UK grew by 3.8 per cent.
- The degree of financial exercise in NI presently sits 2.5 per cent under the utmost worth recorded in Quarter 2 2007 while UK GDP is estimated to be 13.7 per cent above its pre-economic downturn peak.
1 The common of the newest 4 quarters in comparison with the common of the earlier 4 quarters.
2 Although Construction declined marginally over the quarter, the quantum was not enough to negatively impression NICEI development over the quarter (to 1 decimal place).
Notes to editors:
1. The statistical bulletin and related tables can be found at NI composite Index
2. The NISRA Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) is a quarterly measure of the efficiency of the Northern Ireland (NI) economic system primarily based on accessible official statistics.
3. The NICEI combines present revealed quarterly indices (ie Index of Services (IOS), Index of Production (IOP), Quarterly Construction Enquiry (QCE)), public sector worker jobs information from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), and unpublished agricultural output information from the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA). These indices are weighted utilizing ONS Regional Accounts Gross Value Added (GVA) information to supply a proxy measure of complete financial output within the NI economic system on a quarterly foundation.
4. The NICEI output measures relate to the third quarter (July – September) of 2021. These estimates are primarily based on surveys of companies and estimates of change are topic to sampling error. Figures for 1 / 4 could also be revised if extra full info subsequently turns into accessible.
5. The NICEI again collection is calculated every quarter, sometimes the revisions to the NICEI are moderately minor. The revisions this quarter had been extra noticeable, additional info is on the market within the detailed statistical bulletin accessible at NI Composite Index.
6. This report might be of curiosity to Ministers, coverage makers, public our bodies, the enterprise neighborhood, banks, financial commentators, teachers and most of the people with an curiosity within the native economic system.
7. Further info and tables from every of the information sources can be found on the NISRA web site.
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