OTTAWA, IN, January 16, 2023 /CNW/ – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) updated its forecast for home sales activity through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Canadian real estate boards and associations systems in 2023 and extended the outlook to 2024.

Sales activity, historical, forecast and 10-year average (CNW Group/Canadian Real Estate Association)

Sales activity, historical, forecast and 10-year average (CNW Group/Canadian Real Estate Association)

The extent to which some 2023 figures from the previous forecast have been revised reflects a change in release dates that has allowed an additional full quarter of data to be included in the forecast. As a result, this forecast is completed with an additional six months of data compared to the previous forecast published in September 2022.

Domestic home sales have been more or less stable since the summer, suggesting that the downward adjustment in sales activity from rising interest rates and high uncertainty may be in the rear view mirror.

House prices remain mixed Canada. With borrowing costs significantly higher, it is not surprising that prices have mostly cooled from their peaks in the most expensive markets within ontario Y british columbia. Prices have held up much better in Alberta, saskatchewan Y Newfoundland Y Labradorwith Quebec and the maritime provinces landing somewhere in between. While prices in most markets have declined from a short-lived sharp spike in early 2022, they remain well above where they were in the summer of 2020.

With the scare of the Bank of Canada efforts to control inflation are fading and uncertainty about the direction of housing markets and where borrowing costs will ultimately land are also likely to ease in the coming months, the subject of our 2023 forecast is not recovery , but the beginning of a radical change.

It will likely continue to be quite difficult for many first-time homebuyers to break into the housing market until mortgage rates are lower than they are today. That being said, some buyers are expected to exit the range once they have more certainty that rates have peaked. Others are likely to find 2023 the first opportunity at some point where they don’t have to compete with multiple offers.

Some 495,858 properties are forecast to change hands through the Canadian MLS® Systems in 2023, a 0.5% decrease from 2022.

The national median home price is projected to decline 5.9% annually to $662,103 in 2023. It is important to note that, based on monthly data below the surface, that decline has already occurred over the course of 2022; however, the record-setting start for that year will be reflected as a decline this year, as prices are not expected to come anywhere near those record levels in 2023.

National home sales are forecast to rise 10.2% to 546,625 units in 2024 as markets continue to return to normal.

This would still be below the figures for 2020 and 2021. The national median home price is forecast to recover by a moderate 3.5% from 2023 to 2024 to around $685,056below 2022 but on par with 2021.

About the Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada larger associations of a single industry. CREA works on behalf of more than 155,000 REALTORS® that contribute to the economic and social well-being of communities throughout Canada. Together they advocate for homeowners, buyers, and sellers.

CREA - ACI Logo (CNW Group/Canadian Real Estate Association)

CREA – ACI Logo (CNW Group/Canadian Real Estate Association)

SOURCE Canadian Real Estate Association



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