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Can Haaland or Lewandowski break Messi’s historic record? & More Latest News Here


ANDhe goal is currently dancing to the sound of Erling Haland Y Robert Lewandowski. Norwegian and Polish are, respectively, the great nines of world football and every day they prove it. His course starts have been incontestableand both have devoured any doubt about their possible adaptation or debate about their change of league.

Counting LaLiga and Champions, Lewandowski adds 11 goals in 8 games; Counting the Premier League and the Champions League, Haaland has accumulated 14 goals in 10 games. Barça’s stands at 1.3 goals per game; that of Manchester City, at 1.4. Scary figures that invite you to think, why not, about breaking all the records recorded to date.

In this article We will try to analyze how Lewandowski and Haaland score their goals, what their strengths are and what kind of strikers they are. However, and the most difficult, always from the forecast almost impossible to hit, We will assess whether or not both forwards may be able to break the greatest goalscoring record in history: Messi’s 2011/12.

The astronomical figures of Messi

82 goals, a figure until now classified as “unattainable” and written by Leo Messi in the football history books. He was drawn in gold and diamonds at the end of the 2011/12 campaign, the most prolific of his career against the rival goal, and has been unbeatable ever since.

Of those 82 goals scored by the Argentine star, 73 were with Barcelona (in 60 games) and 9 with the Argentina national team (in 9 gamescounting from the end of the Copa América that year)

A goal by Messi against Málaga in 2011/12 / MARILU BAEZ.

A goal by Messi against Málaga in 2011/12 / MARILU BAEZ.

However, beyond Messi there are other scorers whose recognition is not entirely unanimous in international databases… and who could change the maximum to be overcome by Haaland or ‘Lewy’. Are Frederick Roberts (96 goals in 1930/31) or Joe Bambrick (91 goals in 1929/30). Both in Irish football, with Glentoran and Linfield respectively.

This is how Haaland scores his goals

Erling Braut Haaland is called to be the great striker of the next decade. Born in Leeds (his father played for that team) but raised in Bryne, he started scoring goals practically from the day he jumped from the cradle to the ground.

You’re not going to see anything else like it in the Champions League… and in a long time: Haaland’s most barbaric goal!!

First in Molde, then in Salzburg. By the way, 9 goals against Honduras in the U20 World Cup and 2019… and later a jump to Dortmund after tasting the Champions League honeys without any initiation ceremony. In total, ‘El Androide’ Haaland has scored more than 150 goals in his professional career, with just over 200 official appearancesadding between the club and the Norwegian team.

But… How does Haaland score his goals? Counting only local championships throughout his career, Haaland uses his left leg as his main weapon. 67 goals have come with said extremity while 15 have been marked with the right, and 9 with heads. All according to data you provide us ‘Dribble’.

Taking the same parameter to change how he scores goals by the place from where he does them, the Norwegian has scored 29 goals from the small area, 58 from the rest of the area and just 4 from outside it. Despite the fact that he contributes more and more outside the rectangle, it is still a devourer of the rival area.

However, if something can be ‘thrown in the face’ of Haaland in his game, it is, perhaps, the dependency of his left leg when defining. As we can see from the goals scored this season (11 in the Premier League and 3 in the Champions League), the norwegian points to the left sector of the goal (and mainly the lower part of it) before crossing the ball.

Haaland and an unstoppable rhythm

The piece that Manchester City was missing to be an almost perfect team. The finish of the team of tens. “He reads where the space is. And of course he’s a guy who’s in the area. We want to play a lot of time there, produce a lot of goals and put in a lot of balls so that he can feel comfortable and use his incredible weapon. He is a guy who arrives in the area and has the feeling that he can score.”declared Guardiola at a press conference when asked about his ‘Cyborg’.

Haaland hits the ball against Wolverhampton / AP.

Haaland hits the ball against Wolverhampton / AP.

According to OPTA data, Haaaland’s numbers in these first few months as a Manchester City player are almost unmatched. Unthinkable for someone his age, that’s for sure. Only Lewandowski, in fact, shares them.

Not counting penalties Haaland’s xG (expected goals, expected goals) is estimated at 5.73. And he has 10 goals scored in plays. That is to say, his quality and goalscoring nose when contacting the ball leads him to overwhelmingly improve the expected figures for the quality of the play. He shoots 4.07 times per game (Rodrigo Moreno and Mitrovic have a higher average in the Premier League) and has an average of 1.57 goals per match in their local championship.

Lewandowski: A sniper from the area

Robert Lewandowski’s career is built merit upon merit. Znicz Pruszkow, Lech Poznan, Dortmund, Bayern and now Barcelona. A ladder that has been climbing without pulling the handbrake, scoring goal after goal and breaking record after record. Not even age is an impediment for him.

Lewandowski hat trick

Counting the last five seasons of Lewandowski (so as not to unbalance Haaland’s incipient career with the Pole’s already consolidated one), the one from Barça has a clear predilection for the right foot (his good leg) at the same time uses his head more often than his Golden Boot competitor.

On the other hand, he is a proven area player although we have seen him score goals from outside the area thanks to his great hitting with his right foot. Only 9 goals have been from outside the rectangle while 133 have been from inside.

However, what is most striking about Lewandowski is his ease in adjusting the ball away from the goalkeeper’s reach. The key to every striker. Make the difficult easy. The Pole shows overwhelming efficiency this season when he defines in a low or low shot: 10 goals in 14 shots. The squads, on the other hand, do not visit them.

Although there are LaLiga strikers who come close to Lewandowski (for now) in goalscoring figures, his ability to generate chances is unparalleled. He shoots 5.01 times per game (only Benzema beats him in LaLiga, 5.75) and has an xG (excluding penalties) of 1.39 per 90 minutes according to OPTA, well above Real Madrid’s Frenchman.

Furthermore, according to these statistics, the Pole should have 6.95 goals but adds 8. Although he is not up to Haaland in this section, he continues to score above the possibilities of the chances created.

Is Lewandowski’s best season possible?

Robert Lewandowski gets better as the years go by. The Pole reached his best figures in the 2019/20 season: 55 goals in 47 games for Bayern, 4 goals in 6 games for Poland. A total of 59 goals. However, he is determined to break those figures and, why not, in Leo Messi’s fiefdom, try to get closer to the Argentine. Or beat it…

They are big words, it is clear, and surpassing their figures achieved in Germany will not be easy. He scored 10 goals in his first 6 games of that campaign with Bayern in the Bundesliga; he has 8 in 6 games with Barcelona in LaLiga. The ‘drought’ against Rayo for now takes its toll. In the Champions League he did the most difficult thing: he scored in all the games he played in except for the Lisbon final, which he won against PSG. 15 goals in 10 games. Almost nothing. For now he has 3 in Barcelona counting only UCL, the same ones he had in Bayern in two days.

Yes indeed, in the Bundesliga he had the handicap that there were four fewer games per campaign as there were fewer teams in the German championship. In Barcelona he can have more minutes… if he physically remains at 100%, as he has been up to now.

Will they be able to overcome Messi’s 82 goals…?

First of all, before attempting to answer this question, it should be noted that there is no science capable of accurately predicting what will happen in a season. Injuries, drops in form of the striker or the assistants, sanctions… as indicated by the statistical houses consulted, “It would not be scientific or correct to give an exact number.” Therefore we will try to guide and draw the path that Lewandowski and Haaland are following right now, and whose goal Leo Messi still controls.

The Argentine played 60 games for his club in 2011/12. To do this, he completed 37 of the 38 league games, reached the Champions League semifinals (eliminated by Chelsea and rested in the group stage against Plzen) In addition, he won the Copa del Rey (without playing the first round, at that time in double match) and played in the Club World Cup, the Spanish Super Cup and the European Super Cup. Then, with Argentina, he played 9 games. These were their figures:

  • Lionel Messi 2011/12
  • 50 goals in LaLiga
  • 14 Champions League goals
  • 3 goals in Copa del Rey
  • 2 goals in the Club World Cup
  • 1 goal in European Super Cup
  • 3 goals in the Spanish Super Cup
  • 9 goals with Argentina
  • Total: 82 goals in 2011/12

On the one hand, Messi has something that Lewandowski and Haaland still lack. Or, rather, something they can’t confirm: are they going to play almost everything? Messi barely rested four games between all competitions and showed iron sporting health. He was untouchable. In addition, he had several competitions in his favor that his ‘rivals’ will not play: the Club World Cup, the European Super Cup and the Spanish Super Cup. Traveling to the field of selection, Lewandowski will have the World Cup in Qatar at his disposal to increase his goalscoring figures; Haland, no.

For now we can compare the two competitions that the three have shared: local league (LaLiga or Premier League) and Champions League. Pulling elementary mathematics and subtracting the game that Messi did not play in LaLiga, Haaland’s xG (including penalties) is 1.57 per match; those of Lewandowski, 1.60. If we export that to the games we have left, we get the following calculation:

  • Local championship goals expected if they keep up the pace
  • Haland: 58 goals.
  • Lewandowski: 56 goals.

But… And the Champions? In this case we must modify the figures. Let’s count that they reach the semifinals like Messi in 2011/12, and that they rest a game in the group stage. Haaland has an xG of 1.47 in Champions; Lewandowski, 0.83.

  • Goals in Champions
  • Haaland: 16 goals.
  • Lewandowski: 12 goals.

These figures, of course, the most optimal possible, would place Haaland and Lewandowski a stone’s throw away from Messi 2011/12 without counting the cups or the national team matches. However, back to where we were before… this does not take into account (because it is impossible) possible injuries or sanctions.

But this study does make one thing clear: only a Haaland or Lewandowski of a ‘Martian’ level (on the scoring and physical level) could match the figures of one of the best Messi of all time.

* Data from Twenty3, OPTA and Driblab.

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